The state of the market – Spring 2024
The days are a little bit longer, the weather’s just that touch warmer, and in real estate, that means just one thing – spring selling season is here.
As the peak time of year for properties to come to market, it begs the question what’s the state of play as we enter spring selling season 2024?
Increase in volume
Spring traditionally delivers an increase in listing volumes with sellers keen to take advantage of the warmer weather and bring their properties to market.
According to CoreLogic’s analysis of the past decade, listing volumes typically increase about 18.2 per cent during the spring period, while sales increase 8.3 per cent.
Past decade average, difference in sales and listings volumes between winter and spring (Source: CoreLogic)
Why the increase?
Anecdotal evidence suggests there are a couple of reasons this increase in listing volumes and sales occurs.
With gardens in full bloom and the weather now a little warmer, spring offers a great opportunity to showcase a property to its full potential.
Meanwhile, it also allows sales to settle prior to the holiday season and the new year when people might be relocating to different areas for work, education or lifestyle.
However, while spring typically sees an increase in listing volumes and sales, the season is not immune to greater market forces.
In other words, factors like interest rates, borrowing conditions, and general consumer sentiment can impact the market at this time of year, just as they do during any other period.
So what’s in store for spring 2024?
Demand vs supply
As we head into spring selling season 2024, CoreLogic notes demand for properties continues to outstrip supply nationally.
In the three months to July 2024, there were an estimated 124,500 sales against 123,000 new listings added to the market.
“This suggests a higher level of buyers than sellers nationally, with demand outpacing supply,” CoreLogic states.
That said, the past three months have seen supply and demand even out a touch compared to the period prior.
Their data indicates 142,500 sales occurred in the three months to April against 128,000 new listings while for the same period last year there were 123,000 sales against 112,000 new listings.
Meanwhile, some capitals have greater supply versus demand than others.
While demand continued to outstrip supply over the three months to July in Sydney, Brisbane, Perth, and Adelaide, listing volumes were actually higher than sales volumes in Melbourne and Hobart, as the following data illustrates:
Sydney
Estimated sales – 21,533
New listings – 20,587
Brisbane
Estimated sales – 12,992
New listings – 12,624
Perth
Estimated sales – 12,738
New listings – 11,230
Adelaide
Estimated sales – 7632
New listings – 4693
Melbourne
Estimated sales – 21,145
New listings – 26,590
Hobart
Estimated sales – 867
New listings – 1047
House prices
Housing prices have continued to hit new highs over the past year, with the national Housing Value Index (HVI) having increased for the past 18 consecutive months.
CoreLogic notes these increases now total 13.5 per cent and follow a 7.5 per cent decline recorded between May 2022 and January 2023, with values consistently pushing to new record highs since November last year.
In terms of house prices, PropTrack data indicates the past year saw the national median house price increase 6.3 per cent to July this year, to sit at $795,000.
This growth has been stronger in the capitals, which saw a 6.6 per cent increase to $864,000, compared to regional area growth of 5.4 to a median value of $650,000.
Breaking down the states and capitals, the following trends emerged:
NSW – Sydney median house prices increased 6.1per over the 12 months to July 2024 to reach $1,118,000, while the rest of NSW rose 4 per cent to a median house value of $728,000.
Victoria – Melbourne median house prices dipped 0.8 per cent over the 12 months to July to sit at $803,000, while the rest of Victoria dropped 1.5 per cent to $587,000.
Queensland – Brisbane median house prices rose 13.9 per cent to $853,000, while the rest of Queensland increased 11.2 per cent to $696,000.
SA – Adelaide median house prices increased 14.8 per cent to $770,000, while the rest of South Australia rose 10.9 per cent to $445,000.
WA – Perth median house prices jumped 22.8 per cent to $736,000 in the 12 months to July, while the rest of WA rose 15.2 per cent to $519,000.
Tasmania – Hobart’s median house price decreased by 2.1 per cent to $673,000, while the rest of Tasmania rose 2.2 per cent to $504,000.
NT – Darwin’s median house price rose 1.8 per cent to $484,000, while the rest of the NT dropped 2.3 per cent to $403,000.
ACT – The Australian Capital Territory’s median house price increased 0.7 per cent to $843,000.
Auction clearance rate
Auction volumes and the preliminary clearance rate also paint a picture of what’s happening in the market.
As we head into spring, CoreLogic reports auction volumes are rising, while the clearance rate also appears to be on the up.
On August 24, 2052 homes went under the hammer in the combined capitals, returning a preliminary clearance rate of 71.4 per cent.
While the clearance rate is higher than last year when a success rate of 66.8 per cent was reported, the volume is slightly lower. In the same week last year, 2278 properties went to auction.
Comparing the capitals, Sydney and Adelaide are returning the strongest results.
On August 24, Sydney’s preliminary success rate was 74.9 per cent, while Melbourne’s was 68.7 per cent, Brisbane’s was 67.3 per cent, Adelaide sat at 79.5 per cent, and Canberra was at 56.5 per cent.
Meanwhile, the increase in auction volumes is likely to continue. For the week ending September 1, CoreLogic reports 2124 capital city homes are scheduled for auction, up 2.9 per cent on the week prior.
The top takeaways
The bottom line is, the Australian property market remains incredibly strong with demand for homes continuing to outstrip supply in most markets, while prices also remain at record highs.
As a result, this spring selling season is looking positive, and if you’re considering selling prior to the end of the year, now is the time to act.
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